Week 12 Box Score Scouting

 

IND/HOU

 

Lots of talk this week about who will be the RB to own in Marlon Mack’s absence and looking back the answer clearly should’ve been Jonathan Williams.  For a player that has had a hard time finding a home, he clearly looked capable of handling the load.  Every year there’s an RB who comes out of nowhere and carries his fantasy owners to a title, could he be that guy this year? Marlon Mack is already ruled out for week 13, making me wonder if he’s anywhere close to returning and whether Indy would even want to rush him back when they could save him for the playoffs.  Not only did Williams get 26 carries, he also added 3 targets which ties Mack’s season high.  The matchups are tough in week 14 and 15, but you’re definitely starting him this week against Tennessee. 

 

TY Hilton disappointed with only 3 catches on 6 targets and a 37% target share. It sounds like there was an injury during the game that kept him limited. TY is tough as nails, but I think I’ll be waiting on him to put in a normal workload before trusting him in my lineup again.

 

Nice welcome back for Will Fuller, but with games against New England and Denver over the next two weeks I won’t be bending over backwards to get him in my lineup.  Weeks 15 and 16 look good however and if you can keep him rostered for those games you have to do it.

 

CAR/NO

 

You don’t need me to continue to remind you that DJ Moore is amazing, but I’ll at least remind you that his schedule is great the rest of the way and that he’s easily a top 20 player in startups next season. The hype isn’t going to die down for a long time.

 

Greg Olsen is clearly a TE1 the rest of the way.  The matchups are great and he consistently gets a high target share when that’s the case.  Start him with confidence.

 

Since coming back from the injury and the bye, Tre’Quan Smith has only been out snapped by Drew Brees and Michael Thomas.  He has 6 targets in 3 weeks and only 2 receptions, but the playing time could create more opportunity. 

 

TB/ATL

 

Despite playing only 15 snaps, Peyton Barber had 11 carries and 1 target which only takes away from Ronald Jones upside.  For his part, Ronald Jones saw 50% of the snaps for only the 2nd time this season and his usage was back up to the level he was trending to before last weeks debacle.  It looks to me like last week had more to do with the tough matchup against New Orleans which could mean good things for him this week with a good matchup against New England.

 

Calvin Ridley continues to feast with no Austin Hooper.  He had a season high 14 targets in this game and even added 2 in the red zone.  He’s a great WR2 right now.

 

Over his last 4 games, Russell Gage has averaged 7 targets while compiling a total of 21 receptions and while he hasn’t yet found the end zone he has seen a red zone target every week during that stretch.

 

DEN/BUF

 

Things are pretty rough in Denver right now, but at least we have some clarity at the RB position.  Phillip Lindsey is the clear RB1 having seen 32 touches to Freemans 13 since the bye two weeks ago.  The next 4 weeks for Lindsay could be league winning type production as he faces 4 teams ranked in the top 10 at fantasy points allowed to RB’s.

 

Noah Fant predictably turned in his worst performance since week 7 as he faced a tough Buffalo D, but he still factored into the gameplay enough to think he could be big part of this teams future.

 

Devin Singletary’s upside is capped by sharing a backfield with the 3rd most prolific rusher of all time, but his biggest issue is the remaining schedule.  The matchup against Dallas next week is good, but Baltimore, Pittsburg, and New England in the fantasy playoffs is about as tough as it gets for an RB.

 

Even in tough matchups, John Brown finds ways to give you a solid floor of low end double digit points.  He still only has one week below double digits and that was 9.5.

 

NYG/CHI

 

I speculated two weeks ago if Darius Slayton could be this years Robert Foster and I think we are still seeing signs of that.  I know he only had 4 for 67, but it was on 7 targets against the 3rd ranked Chicago defense. The matchups are much better going forward.

 

Daniel Jones has only done two things for fantasy owners so far in his career - Score over 30 points, or less than 20 points.  Nothing in between.  Could he have another 30 point outing in week 15 against Miami?  Week 16 against Washington?

 

Tarik Cohen continues to be utilized as if he is a big part of this offense.  He has double digit ppr points in 3 straight weeks and with matchups against the 3 worst defenses against RB’s over the next 4 weeks he could be worth starting the rest of the way.

 

After a puzzling stretch between weeks 8-10 where Anthony Miller had a total of 6 targets, he now has 11 and 9 over his last 2 weeks and put up double digit fantasy points.  We’ve seen small stretches from him, but need to see him finish the season strong in order to have any trust in him next season.

 

PIT/CIN

 

Benny Snell came back from his knee injury and took on a full workload right away toting the rock 21 times and adding one catch.  Meanwhile Jaylen Samuels took on a diminished role and can no longer be relied upon.  Snell’s matchups aren’t bad down the stretch and is worth adding.

 

None of the WR’s or TE’s on this team can be relied upon for the rest of the season.  Devlin Hodges is not likely to be the future for this team, but we’ll continue to track how James Washington and Diontae Johnson perform to know how to value them next season when Big Ben presumably takes the reigns back over.

 

With Tyler Boyd’s 9 targets and 5/101/1 stat line I believe the squeaky wheel rule is undefeated this season. Andy Dalton is back this week and with the Jets on the schedule look for Boyd to continue to be targeted often with a chance to put up a solid stat line.

 

Down week for Joe Mixon, especially considering he saw zero targets for the first time this season.  It’ll be interesting to see if Andy Dalton can stabilize things for him.

 

MIA/CLE

 

In case you haven’t been paying attention, Devante Parker is a must start WR.  In the last 3 weeks he is the 3rd most targeted WR in the NFL behind only Michael Thomas and DJ Moore.  

 

Mike Gesicki is not someone you want to start this season, but he has carved out a nice role for himself that could carry over to next season. He has at least 6 targets in each of the last 4 weeks.

 

Last 5 weeks since Cleveland’s bye: Jarvis Landry - 53 targets, 34 receptions, 404 yards, 5 TD’s. Odell Beckham - 43 targets, 25 receptions, 340 yards, 1 TD.  Who’s the WR1 in Cleveland?  That said, start both of course the rest of the way.

 

I saw some confusing tweets this week about Nick Chubb owners being worried about Kareem Hunt’s usage.  I don’t understand that at all. Chubb had 24 touches to Hunts 10 had a better ypc and even more targets, rushing and receiving yards.

 

OAK/NYJ

 

Some weeks you just have to throw everything out and this was one of those weeks for Oakland.  I don’t think there’s anything to learn from snaps or target share here, but we can talk about Renfrow’s injury.  I’m expecting Darren Waller tone the primary beneficiary of the vacated targets, but don’t overlook Zay Jones. He out snapped all of the WR’s in Oakland this week and if he can tick up to the 6-8 targets a game range he could be useful.

 

The Jets continue to take advantage of a soft schedule and Sam Darnold is on fire with back to back weeks of 30+ fantasy points.  He gets Cincinnati and Baltimore next, so continue to ride the hot hand here.

 

Robby Anderson found the end zone again this week, but still only has 5 catches in his last two weeks for less than 100 yards.  I want to see his targets get into the 6-8 range before trusting him.  Ryan Griffin also found the end zone again this week, but only had a line of 3/13/1.  Hardly someone we want to rely on.

 

DET/WAS

 

I think you have to call week 12 a success for Bo Scarbrough as he racked up 98 yards on 18 carries. The biggest issue (other than the fumble) is that he is adding nothing in the receiving game so he is pretty dependent on getting in the end zone.  I like his chances this week against Chicago, but with Driskell potentially out, I think I’ll pass.

 

Don’t get cute and try to sell Kenny Golloday or Marvin Jones.  They’ll be ok this week, but week 14 against Minnesota and week 15 against Tampa set up nicely for you to advance to the championship round with them in your lineup.

 

Some people will look at week 12 as a step back for Derrius Guice.  Don’t be one of those people.  His snap count was up and so were his touches showing that Washington is easing him into a heavier workload. You aren’t starting him this week unless you’re desperate, but if the trends continue to be positive you could potentially start him in week 14 at GB.

 

Kelvin Harmon is quietly starting to carve out a role in this offense.  His snap counts have been up since the bye and he has 6 targets in each of the last 2 games.  Make sure he’s owned in your dynasty leagues.

 

SEA/PHI

 

A few times a year Rashaad Penny does this and every time it’s been a tease.  Will this be any different?  It doesn’t sound like Pete Carroll is ready to hand him the job despite fumbles from Carson so I’ll still put my chips on Carson ROS.

 

This was a rough day for the receiving options on this team, but Philly has actually been better against the pass in recent weeks so it’s not a complete surprise. I’ll be ready to trust all of them again this week against Minnesota.

 

Miles Sanders hasn’t exactly taken full advantage of Jordan Howards absence in the way we hoped, but he’s certainly done enough in a couple tough matchups for us to trust him at Miami this week whether Howard plays or not.

 

Carson Wentz hasn’t surpassed 20 points since week 6.  I know the weapons have been bad for him, but at QB you can do a lot better.

 

JAX/TEN

 

I noted last week that Leonard Fournette has yet to drop below 12 ppr points this season and he certainly blew pat that this week as he exploded for 36.9 ppr points.  The TD’s were nice (first since week 5) but the 12 targets are insane for an RB that had questions about his receiving abilities.  

 

Nice to see 9 targets for Dede Westbrook, he’s a great play this week against Tampa Bay’s terrible defense.

 

Since week 7 when Ryan Tannehill took over as the starter in Tennessee, only Lamar Jackson, Matt Stafford (3 games) and James Winston have more fantasy PPG than Tannehill does. Not only is he a must own, he could easily carry some teams to a title with a fairly easy schedule ahead.

 

As has been the case a couple times this season, AJ Brown’s big games don’t always mean he’s fully breaking out.  I’d love to see more than the typical 4-5 targets he’s been getting for most of the season, but I don’t see him as anything more than a boom bust play this year. There are enough good matchups left on the schedule that he could finish strong and be more boom than bust, but it’s tough to trust that right now.

 

DAL/NE

 

Games played in the kind of weather Dallas played in don’t typically tell us very much, not to mention the difficult defense they played against.  The next two weeks aren’t much better for the receiving weapons as they host Buffalo and go to Chicago.  

 

I continue to like the usage Michael Gallup and Randall Cobb are seeing in this offense right now. Since the bye - Gallup - 35 targets, Cooper - 31 targets, Cobb - 30 targets.  Each has 2 TD’s over that time with Cobb leading in yards and Cooper bringing up the rear.

 

I know it doesn’t appear that way right now, but it’s Sony Michel time folks.  I speculated about it last week and then he got 20 carries in week 12. New England plays Houston, KC and Cincy over the next 3 weeks and he could easily have 20+ fantasy points in those weeks if he gets that kind of carry totals.

 

N’Keal Harry will get the buzz this week, but Jakobi Myers was back to a heavy workload this week with injuries to other WR’s and he ended up with 9 targets.  With Houston on the schedule this week he could be a sneaky flex play if Sanu and Dorsett are out again. Harry’s 4 targets only resulted in the one TD catch.

 

GB/SF

 

Aaron Jones was back to his typical role with Adams in the lineup, but in this tough matchup against the 49ers it resulted in a disappointing day.  With the Giants on deck and Washington in the hole, he could be much better especially if he can get in the end zone.  Unfortunately the targets have practically disappeared which makes zero sense.

 

Despite a great matchup and a perfect game script, Tevin Coleman only saw 13 touches and just 12.9 ppr points.  That’s hardly what you had hoped for out of him, but outside of one week he’s had a disappointing season.  2 straight difficult games coming up, so if you have better options I’d be looking that way.

 

Deebo Samuel only had 2 targets, but he scored to save his fantasy day.  I’m going to chalk up the low target share to San Fran keeping him fresh considering he came into the game banged up.  If healthy his next few games could be great.

 

BAL/LAR

 

I’ve been higher than almost everyone on Mark Ingram all season and last week said that I didn’t understand the hate he was getting.  He’s the RB1 on the best offense in football. Sometimes its that easy.  

 

Really nice game for Marquise Brown, but with San Fran and Buffalo next I won’t be trusting him any time soon.  He’s a boom bust play until his target share get consistently north of 4.  

 

Not a great week for any of the Rams, but a nice welcome back for Robert Woods as he led the team in receiving.  

 

Gerald Everett has the best schedule for TE’s remaining, but his knee injury is likely to keep him from maximizing his potential.  Keep an eye on the reports this week.

 

 

By:@calvinandhobby