Trade Deadline 2018 Dynasty Implications
There was a flurry of activity on trade deadline day as well as in the weeks leading up to it. I will take a look at the trades that went down and the dynasty implications as well as winners and losers from the recent transactions. I will be analyzing five trades on looking at which players were impacted the most, in this article I will be focusing on the offensive players who were traded. Examining which players saw the greatest rise or drop in dynasty value as a result of the recent trades. I will begin with the deals that went down over the course of the weeks leading up to the October 30th trade deadline and move on to the trade deadline day deals that went down.
Carlos Hyde - Cleveland To Jacksonville For 2019 5th Round Draft Pick
On October 19th the Jacksonville Jaguars acquired runningback Carlos Hyde from the Cleveland Browns for a 2019 fifth round draft pick in an attempt to fill the void left by injured runningback Leonard Fournette. At first glance this was a necessary acquisition for the Jag's, as without a power run game they are forced to depend on the arm of the enigmatic Blake Bortles. As the Jaguars have proven if they lack an effective run game resulting in twenty plus pass attempts for Blake Bortles they simply don't win football games. It is unclear what role Hyde will have once Leonard Fournette returns from his lingering hamstring injury as their skill sets are somewhat redundant.
Nick Chubb - The second round rookie had just 16 carries through his first six games for the Browns. Cleveland fans had been vocal about wanting to see more from the 22 year old ever since he exploded for 63 yard and 41 yard touchdown runs against the Raiders in week 4. In the two games since Hyde's departure Chubb has received 38 total touches, resulting in 145 yards rushing, 10 yards receiving, and a touchdown.
Jacksonville Offense - As I mentioned the only way the Jaguars appear to have any team success is when they establish an effective run game. With Fournette battling injuries over the first year and a half of his career, Hyde will add some much needed insurance at the runningback position. Hyde's skill set will compliment the versatile T.J. Yeldon to form a formidable 1-2 punch until Leonard Fournette returns from injury.
T.J. Yeldon - Yeldon has done a fantastic job filling in for Leonard Fournette and was used effectively even when Fournette was in the lineup. Yeldon had received double digit touches in every game of the season except for the game Hyde played in. In week eight with Carlos Hyde active he only received 9 total touches with a season low two rushing attempts.
Carlos Hyde - In six games with the Browns Hyde averaged 20 touches per game and was the unquestioned workhorse back. In his debut with the Jaguars he only managed six touches with every statistical category being a season low. Now it is entirely possible that he is just being eased into a new offense and many quality backs don't put up big numbers against the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles. But those numbers are discouraging to say the least especially with Fournette expected back in week 10.
Leonard Fournette - It's hard to imagine a scenario where Fournette dominates backfield touches as he did last season. He is coming off a lingering hamstring injury and will now be stuck in a dreaded backfield timeshare, as the Jag's have three capable runningbacks. I would expect Fournette to be eased back into action as not to aggravate his hamstring, even when he's back at full strength it's unlikely he matches his 23.4 touch per game average he had last year in his rookie campaign.
Amari Cooper - Oakland To Dallas For 2019 1st Round Draft Pick
On October 23rd the Dallas Cowboys acquired Amari Cooper from the Oakland Raiders for a 2019 first round draft pick. Many view this trade as a significant over payment by the Cowboys to obtain the former first rounder out of Alabama, but that remains to be seen. After starting his career off with back to back 1000 yard receiving seasons (1070 & 1149), he had a disappointing 2017 season. Cooper battled injuries last season only playing in 13 games, and just didn't seem like himself.
Dak Prescott - The biggest winner in this trade has to be third year quarterback Dak Prescott, who has been lacking a true number one receiver since the departure of Dez Bryant. The Cowboys offense has been lacking a big outside receiver and have been depending on Ezekiel Elliot and slot receiver Cole Beasley. Prescott has the talent and physical tools to be a successful starting quarterback in the NFL but has been lacking offensive weapons, Cooper should help him immensely.
Amari Cooper - Some may argue the fact that Cooper comes out of this trade as a winner but I firmly believe that a change of scenery and escaping the Gruden disaster in Oakland will prove to be a positive move for Coop. Cooper is incredibly talented and is capable of being a top receiver in this league as he proved in 2015 and 2016. It may take some time to build a rapport with his new quarterback Dak Prescott but I feel this could be a lethal combination when it comes to fruition.
Jared Cook - Since the Raiders essentially have no quality receivers remaining on the roster the main beneficiary of Cooper leaving town is likely veteran tightend Jared Cook. Cook is having an excellent season and is on pace for 80 receptions and over 1000 receiving yards which would both be career highs. The Raiders are a complete dumpster fire and will likely be playing the majority of their remaining games from a negative game script which will also benefit Cook.
Jalen Richard - As I mentioned in regards to Jared Cook the Raiders are lacking both capable receivers and impactful play makers on offense. Oakland also has a porous offensive line that has quarterback Derek Carr running for his life on nearly every offensive play. The combination of the terrible O-line and constant negative game scripts will lead to a ton off dump offs for Richard. The diminutive third year UDFA out of Southern Miss is currently sixth in the league in runningback targets with 45 and fifth in RB receptions with 39. These impressive receiving numbers will likely only improve with the departure of Cooper.
Derek Carr - Poor Derek Carr. The talented fifth year pro out of Fresno State was already behind the eight ball
thanks to the group of mediocre and washed up veteran receivers that coach John Gruden has surrounded Carr with. Now he has lost the only quality wide receiver on the roster in Amari Cooper and appears to be stuck in the middle of a rebuild in Oakland. Until the Raiders draft or sign a true number one receiver and address the offensive line issues Carr will struggle to put up quality stats.
Allen Hurns - The Cowboys "prized" off season acquisition wide receiver Allen Hurns has been disappointing to say the least. In his first seven games in Dallas he has only managed 13 receptions for 158 yards and 1 touchdown. With a superior receiver in Cooper joining the Cowboys it is highly unlikely that Hurns has much of a role moving forward. Especially with the steady progression of rookie third rounder Michael Gallup who emerged in week seven leading the cowboys in receiving yards.
Demaryius Thomas - Denver To Houston For 2019 4th Round Draft Pick
In the first significant trade of deadline day former Pro Bowl wide out Demaryius Thomas was traded from the struggling Denver Broncos to the potentially playoff bound Houston Texans. Denver received their supposed asking price of a fourth round draft pick, as well as exchanging seventh round draft picks. The 30 year old Thomas is no longer as explosive as he once was, but has long been well respected for his leadership and work ethic. Thomas improves the team now and will have to play well for the Texans to keep him at a $14 million base salary next season.
Deshaun Watson - The Texans needed another outside receiver after the loss of Will Fuller who is out for the season with a torn ACL. They got one in the Broncos' number two all time leading receiver, Demaryius Thomas, even if Thomas has a much different skill set than Fuller. The Texans gave up a fourth round pick and as mentioned swapped selections in the seventh round with the Broncos. At 5-3, they are in a great position to win the AFC South. One year after dealing away left tackle Duane Brown at the trade deadline, the Texans were buyers in 2018 and dark horse Super Bowl contenders in the AFC.
Courtland Sutton - The trade of Thomas was as much about Sutton's potential as it was Thomas' ability. The rookie outside threat has already shown a penchant for catching jump balls down the field, a key skill when playing with Case Keenum. Sutton has earned 69.2 percent of the team's offensive snaps this season and ranks third in the NFL in yards per reception (19.1). That snap share should approach 100 percent now, as the Broncos' rookie class including Sutton, Bradley Chubb, Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman now takes center stage.
DeAndre Hopkins - Considered by many to be the best wide receiver in the league, Hopkins should benefit from the addition of Demaryius Thomas. After the loss of Will Fuller teams would be able to focus all of their defensive attention on Hopkins as he would be the only real offensive threat for the Texans. The addition of Thomas will help alleviate some of the defensive attention that Hopkins would garner from opposing teams top defensive backs.
Emmanuel Sanders - The main beneficiary of the Demaryius Thomas trade from a Denver perspective at least in the short term has to be Manny Sanders. With Sutton still being a rookie and adjusting to life in the NFL one would have to think that Sanders will be peppered with targets moving forward. Sanders is on pace for 100 plus receptions and over 1300 yards, he will definitely command significant defensive attention, but will likely see an uptick in production. I fully expect Sanders to put up WR1 numbers for the remainder of the season.
Case Keenum - Keenum is having a respectable first season with the Broncos as he's on pace for 368 completions, 4220 yards, and 20 touchdowns with the only negative being he has already thrown 10 interceptions. His job is about to get much more difficult without his biggest and arguably most dependable target in Demaryius Thomas. The Denver offense and more specifically Case Keenum is likely in for a tough second half of the season on as the Broncos offense will be depending on rookies at the skill positions.
Keke Coutee - The rookie fourth rounder has been battling injuries all season long only appearing in three and a half games so far. He will likely have to operate out of the slot to see any relevant playing time as he will be relegated to three wide receiver sets moving forward. It remains to be seen if Thomas is a member of the Texans next season as he is due 14 million dollars. If Houston retains Thomas then Coutee will be fourth on the depth chart in 2019 behind Hopkins, Fuller, and Thomas.
Demaryius Thomas - Thomas should have a prominent role in the Texans offense for the remaining eight games of the season. However it remains to be seen what his role is in 2019 or if he is even playing for Houston next year. He is less than two months away from his 31st birthday and due a lot of money next season so as I previously mentioned he very well could be released in the off season. It's no big secret that there is an inevitable production drop off for the vast majority of wide outs shortly after they turn 30 years old.
Golden Tate - Detroit To Philadelphia For 2019 3rd Round Draft Pick
The acquisition of receiver Golden Tate on Tuesday augments the Eagles' chances of winning another Super Bowl this year by improving their biggest offensive weakness, wide out depth. The high cost of a 2019 third round draft pick is heading to Detroit, proves that those in the forward thinking franchise aren't afraid to make decisions primarily based on the present. Tate will be a free agent after this season, although the Eagles will get a jump start on potentially signing him long term. If Tate signs elsewhere, the Eagles could get a compensatory pick back for him. Make no mistake, this acquisition is about the next three months, and a Philadelphia squad looking to repeat as Super Bowl champions.
Carson Wentz - Wentz who was the second overall pick in the 2016 NFL draft out of North Dakota State is one of the best young quarterbacks in the league and he just got another weapon. Wentz has been playing at an elite level since entering the league and should only get better as he gains experience and rounds back into shape after tearing his ACL last December. He now has another quality weapon added to his arsenal in Golden Tate who remains at the top of his game at age 30, on pace to top 90 catches and 1,000 yards for a third straight season.
Kenny Golladay - The sophomore phenom out of Northern Illinois is undoubtedly in line for a significant boost in both playing time and target share with the departure of Golden Tate. Golladay is having an excellent 2018 campaign with 30 receptions for 477 yards and 3 touchdowns in seven games. Now a presumed starter, Golladay will command more snaps and targets with a chance to significantly increase his production over the second half of the year. Golladay has shown that he is an extremely capable route runner, with reliable hands and leaping ability to high point the ball. He will likely be the focal point of the offense moving forward.
Marvin Jones - Jones will continue to operate as a starting outside receiver following the trade of Golden Tate to the Eagles. For most of this season, Jones has worked in the shadow of Tate and second year wide receiver Kenny Golladay, surpassing 60 yards just one time during the first six games. However, Jones bounced back this past Sunday against the Seahawks, hauling in seven of 10 targets for 117 yards and two touchdowns. The trade of Tate opens up nearly 10 targets per game, ensuring more target consistency with ample opportunity for success for Jones moving forward.
Matthew Stafford - The biggest negative impact of the Tate trade will most likely be to Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford, as he loses a trusted and dependable slot receiver. Tate was the team's leader in receptions and yards this season. This trade makes the 2018 Lions team worse, and it makes Stafford's life more difficult down the stretch. The Lions' passing game had rounded into form over the last month, and Detroit played its top three wide outs (Tate, Jones and Golladay) almost exclusively at the position.
Nelson Agholor - The Eagles traded for Tate in part because Carson Wentz hasn't found receivers open on early downs this season. Agholor has definitely been part of that problem, as he's averaging only 9.1 yards per reception and has made a number of mental mistakes throughout the season. Agholor has failied to top 50 yards in all but two games. He has played more than half his snaps in the slot this season, where he's at his most effective. Tate figures to take a considerable amount of those inside snaps away now, with Agholor being forced to line up regularly as an outside receiver.
Golden Tate - It is difficult to imagine a scenario where Tate matches his first half totals in the remaining eight games of the season as he was on pace for 90 receptions and 1040 receiving yards with the Lions. The Eagles have several quality pass catching options and like to spread the ball around rather than pepper one receiver with targets. Philly also runs a complex offensive scheme and it may take several weeks before he is fully comfortable and accustomed to the Mike Groh offense.
Jordan Matthews - Just a couple of short years ago Jordan Matthews was considered by most fantasy experts to be the future of the Eagles receiving core. In his six games since reuniting with the Eagles the former Vanderbitlt star and 2014 second rounder has only managed 10 receptions for 200 yards and 1 touchdown. With Alshon Jeffery returning to full health and the acquisition of Golden Tate it very well could be the end of the line for Matthews in Philadelphia.
Ty Montgomery - Green Bay To Baltimore For 2020 7th Round Draft Pick
After a disastrous week eight game against the Rams where Montgomery cost the Packers their final chance to win, as he fumbled a kickoff return with just over two minutes left. He was subsequently traded from Green Bay to Baltimore for a 2020 7th round draft pick which is essentially just giving him away for free. With the Rams up 29-27, the Packers had a chance to win with at least a field goal, but L.A. getting the ball back meant the game was over. Montgomery only played six snaps before he fumbled away Aaron Rodgers' chances for a game winning drive. It was then reported that some of his Packers teammates were upset with the running back. Montgomery claimed Monday that "it's tough for me to trust anyone" in the locker room.
Aaron Jones - With the trade of Ty Montgomery to the Ravens, Aaron Jones figures to see more snaps especially as a pass catcher. Jones has been splitting work mostly with fellow runner Jamaal Williams with Ty Montgomery sprinkled in for occasional rushes and third down work. Jones has averaged 6.2 ypc. in 2018, improving upon 2017's 5.5 yards per carry average. Jones has, by far, the better speed dynamic and is deserving of more touches. On the year, Jones has averaged just over five rushes per game and just over one reception but he was suspended for the first two games to begin the year. Jones should establish an increased role immediately in the Packers explosive offense and he has a long runway for more work in the immediate future.
Jamaal Williams - After seeing his role in the Packers offense diminish considerably over the course of the past three games. Williams has only averaging six touches per game, down from the 13 touches a game he averaged in weeks one through four. Now it is entirely possible that the Packers will give the extra touches to Aaron Jones however I anticipate at least a small boost in opportunities for Williams. He is averaging a mediocre 3.7 yards per carry, but should see more third down opportunities as he is superior in pass protection to Jones.
Ty Montgomery - The talented Montgomery has worked as receiver possessing one of the league's most versatile skill sets for a running back. But was seeing limited work in the Packers' backfield, touching the ball just 41 times in seven contests. Montgomery has had a few monster games over the past three years in Green Bay but also had trouble staying healthy. He will add a new element to a Ravens backfield that has traditionally had a receiving threat but not this season. Montgomery is a massive upgrade on Buck Allen, and at the very least, Montgomery has a chance at a fresh start in Baltimore as well as unrestricted free agency on the horizon this off season.
Javorius Allen - Coming off a season low three touches in week eight that included no rushing attempts Allen will likely be adversely affected by the arrival of Ty Montgomery. Allen has registered touch counts of just four, six, and three over the course of the last three weeks. It is unclear what role if any he will have moving forward and unless there is some game to game consistency Allen will no longer a reliable fantasy option. The 2015 4th rounder out of USC likley has seen his dynasty value peak as he may be relegated to the bench for the Ravens.
Aaron Rodgers - I consider Rodgers one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league but the departure of his top receiving back will likely have a negative effect on his production. Although it may be a minimal adverse effect on Rodgers he could still use all of the offensive weapons he could get. As he is surrounded by unproven runningbacks, several rookie wide receivers aside from Davante Adams, and a tightend in Jimmy Graham who is a shell of his former self. Montgomery proved to be a quality offensive threat and useful PPR asset when he played his only full season in 2016. Totaling over 800 yards on 121 touches with 77 rushing attempts and 44 receptions, adding 3 touchdowns.