1 V 1 WR Edition: Keenan Allen Vs Jarvis Landry
In this series I'm going to compare two similarly ranked and drafted players putting them up against each other, and comparing them in a variety of categories such as quality of quarterback, draft pedigree, age, combine results, measurables, team passing attempts, snaps played, PFF grades, target percentage, and depth chart competition. In an attempt to determine which of the two players will be the superior dynasty asset. In this edition I'm going to compare two very talented, but polarizing wide receivers in Keenan Allen and Jarvis Landry. What I discovered in comparing these two wide receivers is that they have a lot in common statistically speaking.
It is difficult to compare their 2016 season due to Allen being injured, Landry had 94 receptions for 1138 yards and 4 touchdowns on 131 targets for a 12.1 yards per reception average. Allen played less than one game in 2016 but in half a season in 2015 he caught 67 passes for 725 yards and 4 touchdowns on 89 targets, for a 10.8 yard per reception average. Their PFF grades and Dynasty rankings are very similar with Landry grading out at 13th overall at 85.7 and Allen 23rd overall with a grade of 82.4. I have Allen as my 11th ranked receiver and Landry as my number 17 ranked wide receiver. Lets take a look at the guys throwing these wide receivers the ball, Phillip Rivers and Ryan Tannehill, at first glance Rivers seems like the easy choice here. But PFF gave the advantage to Tannehill as he was graded 16th overall at 80.9 just edging out Rivers who finished at number 18 overall with an 80.1 rating. However in dynasty quarterback rankings Rivers has the advantage as I have him ranked 13th to Tannehills 19th. Despite personally preferring Rivers I don't see a lot of statistical evidence to back that up, but Tannehill went down with a torn ACL in his left knee, and now “Smokin Jay Cutler” is in town. Advantage: Allen
When it comes to age, measurables, combine results, and draft pedigree, it appears these two wide receivers have a lot of similarities. Despite being drafted a year apart both wide receivers were born in 1992 with Allen being seven months older. With measurables there is a slight advantage to Allen as he is listed at 6'2, 211 lbs and Landry is listed at 5'11, 206 lbs. Combine results can't be compared due to the fact that Allen didn't participate in the 2013 combine due to injury. Which is probably a good thing for Landry considering his below average combine results putting up a sluggish 4.77, 40 time, a 28.5'' vert, and 110'' broad jump, which isn't terrible if your a tightend I guess. Landry has a slight edge in draft pedigree though as he was drafted with the 31st pick of the 2nd round in the very receiver rich 2014 draft 63rd overall. Allen was drafted with the 14th pick of the 3rd round, 76th overall in the 2013 draft, slipping slightly for not working out at the combine due to a knee injury. Advantage: Allen
Now lets take a look at them from more of a team perspective, looking at each teams passing attempts, completion percentage, successful play rate, and teams passing play percentage . Miami attempted 477 passes in 2016, completing 67.3% of them, with a 51% successful play rate, passing the ball on 56.2% of offensive plays last season.. It was obvious to anyone watching Miami last season that they transitioned into more of a run based offense after realizing the incredible talent of running back Jay Ajayi, and Landry's targets suffered as a result. After starting the season off with four consecutive double digit target games, Landry only reached double digit targets twice over the remainder of the season, one of those weeks being against a resting Patriots team in week 17. The Chargers threw the ball 580 times, with a 60.2% completion rate and 49% successful play rate in 2016, passing on 60.7% of offensive plays. The Chargers played a lot of last season in a negative game script due to the fact of having a mediocre defense and Keenan Allen being injured all season. Rivers threw a lot of shorter passes to Gordon and his tight ends last year which is very encouraging for Allen who was an underneath target machine in 2015. Before going down with a season ending injury in week 8 Allen had an astounding 89 targets, putting him at a nearly 200 target pace projected out over a full season. Advantage: Allen
Both players rarely come off the field and rightfully so, in 2016 Landry played 952 snaps and in 2015 Allen was on an 1100 snap pace. Another similarity between these two are their crowded depth charts. As far as targets and target percentage, Landry had 131 targets of his teams 474 pass attempts for a target percentage of 27.6%. In 2015 Keenan Allen's last season where he played significant time he was on pace for 178 targets which would have been a 26.9% target share of his team whopping 661 pass attempts. The Chargers and Dolphins both have a lot of mouths to feed on offense, as Landry has to hold off, Parker, Stills, Ajayi, and to a lesser degree Julius Thomas for targets. While Allen is sharing his targets with, Mike Williams, Tyrell Williams, Hunter Henry, Antonio Gates, and Melvin Gordon. Advantage: Landry
When it comes to selecting a winner between these two, I'm giving the advantage to Keenan Allen. When directly comparing them, one of the main differences I found was that Keenan Allen is under contract until 2020, whereas Jarvis Landry will become an unrestricted free agent after this season and on top of contact extension talks appearing to be non existent both the owner and general manager have made disparaging remarks regarding Landry's future in Miami. I totally disregard anyone who claims Allen is “injury prone” he had two completely unrelated season ending injuries that can be classified as freak injuries and as one injury was a lacerated spleen and the other being a non contact ACL tear on the opposite knee he injured in college. Winner: Keenan Allen