DYNASTY VALUE: Patrick Mahomes
What is there to say about Patrick Mahomes that hasn’t been said? In his 2nd year in the NFL and 1st full season as the starting QB of the Kansas City Chiefs, Mahomes lit up the NFL to the tune of 5,097 passing yards, 50 TD passes, 318 yards per game, and a 113 QB rating while throwing only 12 INT’s. Mahomes could do no wrong last year. He dominated highlight reels with no look passes and making throws that a QB shouldn’t be able to make. His arm strength is off the charts. I will say that I watched some KC games and he does take chances that a QB shouldn’t take but most of those worked out last year. You have to assume though that at some point, those type of errant throws where his footwork breaks down or he’s throwing across his body will catch up to him a bit and increase those interception numbers.
Now, let’s talk about his dynasty value. His February ADP in dynasty superflex leagues is 4. There are some that consider him the #1 pick in SF leagues. The players ahead of him are Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, and Christian McCaffrey. He is clearly the QB 1 in dynasty as he should be. I don’t have any shares of Mahomes in my leagues. I may be considered old school but even in superflex leagues, I’m more incline to draft the elite RB/WR’s before I grab a QB(s). If you stock up on elite RB/WR’s, you can always use that to improve your position at QB by trading if needed.
Here are some trades I’ve seen go down for Mahomes.
Team A: Patrick Mahomes
Team B: Christian McCaffrey/David Johnson
I shouldn’t have to explain why that is tremendous value for Mahomes. Nothing needs to be said about CMC. David Johnson had a down year but he’s a talented RB who has proven to be an elite talent. He was more of a victim of not being utilized correctly and you’d hope that the new coaching staff will not let the same thing happen.
Team A: Patrick Mahomes/Jamison Crowder/2019 2nd
Team B: Jimmy Garoppolo/Michael Thomas/Christian Kirk/2019 1st
Again, this is a very good return for Mahomes. You get a QB who won’t put up Mahome type numbers but you get an elite WR, a young promising WR and a 1st. In addition to these, I’m seeing so many offers in twitterverse of people overpaying like crazy for Mahomes and actually seeing owners who own Mahomes turn those offers down. The only other QB’s to throw for 50 TD’s in a season are Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Neither one got back to that number, although Manning only played one more season. So what should you do if you own Mahomes? Or what would I do? I’d definitely put him on the trading block just to see what offers come my way. It doesn’t mean you have to move him because of that. My motto is simple, no one is untouchable. If I’m offered a king’s ransom for a player, I’m probably doing it. So when it comes to Mahomes, if you’re offered something crazy, like a lower tier QB, an elite RB and/or WR and some combination of other assets, or if someone just severely overpays, I’d say let him go. If you don’t get an offer like that or if your team is contending as is, then I’ll understand holding on to him. Mahomes is the #1 QB in dynasty and I’m not here to tell you any different. His status as #1 will most likely remain for years to come but I do expect some regression next year. There is no wrong answer with Mahomes right now, if you keep him, you have the #1 QB, if you trade him, you’ll be able to address any weaknesses you have on your roster. No matter how you slice it, it’s always great to have a player that so many other owners covet BUT don’t be afraid to pull the trigger on a trade if you’re being offered something that value wise is just too good to pass up.
By: Roberto Serrano @RS_Smoove