DYNASTY VALUE CHECK: Corey Davis
Determining value for dynasty players is the one of the toughest parts of being a dynasty owner. You can have someone in your league offer you a ton for a particular player and have another owner who just hates that particular player. A theme this offseason (at least that I’ve seen and heard) is that the dynasty community is very down on Corey Davis. This peaked my curiosity so I decided to look at some trades that have gone down for Corey Davis. So using DLF’s trade finder, I found some interesting ones:
Trade 1: Darwin Thompson/Jaylen Samuels/2020 3rd for Corey Davis
Trade 2: 2019 Pick #16 & 2019 Pick #26 for Corey Davis
Trade 3: Mike Williams for Corey Davis
The first 2 trades indicate that the owner trading away Davis has given up on him. The 3rd trade is interesting in terms of perceived value.
The better overall numbers belong to Davis. Williams does have the edge on TD’s and catch rate but Williams does play in a better offense with a better QB. With that said though, you can’t say he’s clearly better than Corey Davis. Another trend is that Mike Williams ADP is rising while Corey Davis’s ADP has fallen slightly:
So although Corey Davis is still being drafted before Mike Williams, you can see that the trend is that the dynasty community is a believer in Mike Williams and not so much in Corey Davis as his ADP is dropping a bit the last few months. It got me thinking about another player selected that same year but not with the draft capital of Davis or Williams….Kenny Golladay. Here are Golladay’s numbers in his first 2 years:
Golladay and Corey Davis had similar targets/receptions and catch rate. Golladay did put up more yardage. One interesting stat between Cory Davis and Kenny Golladay is DPI (number of plays and yards where the receiver drew Defensive Pass Interference) Golladay drew 5 DPI’s for 105 yards. Davis drew 5 DPI’s for 106 yards. When it comes to ADP, Golladay is slightly ahead and the preferred option by most:
Although they are close, you can see the massive jump Golladay has had. So after some groupme chats and twitter chat, I’ve come to the realization like I stated above that people are not really loving Corey Davis. His ADP is still showing interest but I think that’s most people just feeling obligated to take him at some point. I think if you give owners their choice of these 3 WR’s, I feel like Davis may come in last. It’s one thing to be in last because everyone else is just that much better but I ask why are most down on Davis but so excited about Golladay and Williams? Is it because of where he was drafted? Is it Mariota (probably has something to do with it ☺)?
Just like Golladay and Williams, Davis made a massive improvement from year 1 to year 2. He did this with a banged up Mariota and several games with Blaine Gabbert. Taking that into consideration, the numbers for Davis are impressive. Before being drafted, an NFL comp to Davis was Terrell Owens. Look at the first 3 years for Owens:
Compare that with the first 2 years of Davis:
That’s pretty similar. No, I’m not saying that Davis will become Owens. I’m saying we shouldn’t be counting out Corey Davis. When you talk about 3rd year breakouts for WR’s, Davis fits right into that considering his first 2 years. Based on the first 2 trades listed above for Davis, some are selling him very cheap. I’m here to tell you that if you don’t have him, send some offers and see if you can get him for those prices because after this year, his value might skyrocket up. Go buy Corey Davis!