2017 Wide Receiver Receptions
Wide Receiver Receptions In Relation To Height
In my latest four part series I researched the overall success rate of wide receivers in a variety of statistical categories including, fantasy points scored, targets, receptions, and receiving yards. I used statistical data from the 2015-2017 seasons using the top fifty in each specific category and graphed my results. The third category in my wide receiver series looks at receptions in relation to receiver height. For the sake of tracking receivers based on height I divided them into four separate classes. The first group consists of receivers 5'7"-5'9", the second grouping are wide outs 5'10'-6'0". The third division of receivers are 6'1"-6'3", and finally the big guys 6'4"-6'6" to close out my research.
The graph below displays the 2017 reception leaders among wide receivers, I have broken the graph up into different height groupings. As you can see the success rate of the wide outs between 6'1"-6'3" is leading the way by a considerable margin representing 46.0% of the top fifty in receptions. Not too far behind is the group of wide receivers between 5'10"-6'0" as they accounted for 38.0% of the reception leader board. Well behind in third place with only a 10.0% representation in the top fifty are the largest receivers of the group ranging from 6'4"-6'6". Once again as expected the group with the lowest percentage in top fifty wide receiver receptions in 2017 was the receivers between 5'7"-5'9", accounting for a meager 6.0% of the total top fifty. For obvious reasons these graphs will mirror the target graphs in my previous article with a slight deviation due to reception percentage and dropped catchable passes.
2016 Wide Receiver Receptions
In 2016 as the below graph illustrates this was by far the most even of years in regards to the top fifty in receptions. The little guys (5'7"-5'9") seen a considerable increase from 6.0% in 2017 to 12.0% in 2016 similarly to their targets, equal with the 6'4"-6'6" grouping who were also responsible for 12.0% of the top 50 wide receiver receptions. The wide outs measuring between 5'10"-6'0" were very close behind the leaders in 2016 as they represented 36.0%. With WR's between 6'1"-6'3" once again leading the way with 40.0% of the top fifty wide receiver receptions in 2016. The bottom two grouping had their best showing with a 24.0% representation in 2016, which was by far the best year reception wise for these groups.
2015 Wide Receiver Receptions
The 2015 graph which can be seen below again looks very similar to the 2017 graph in regards to the same two groupings dominating the top fifty in receptions. The 6'1"-6'3" receivers accounted again for 46.0% of the top fifty leading the way. The 2015 group of wide outs 5'10"-6'0" had 18 in the of the top 50 in WR receptions representing 36.0%. The larger wide outs between 6'4"-6'6" had a mere 10.0% representation in 2015, and the shortest group dropped to below their 2016 total of a minuscule 8.0% of the top fifty in receiver receptions.
2015-2017 Wide Receiver Receptions
The next graph displayed below once again highlights the vast gap between the top two receiver groupings and the bottom two receiver groupings, when looked at over a three year sample size. The top two scoring fantasy receiver groupings (6'1"-6'3") and (5'10"-6'0") account for 80.7% of the top fifty wide outs receptions annually between 2015-2017. The "Big Boys" 6'4"-6'6" were only responsible for 10.7% of the top fifty in receptions over the past three years. The shortest receiver group which was 5'7"-5'9" accounted for an average of 8.7% of the annual top fifty in WR receptions over the course of the past three NFL seasons. It is important to remember that the vast majority of starting wide receivers obviously are between 5'10"-6-3" which is in part responsible for those groups inflated target numbers.
In conclusion it's not hard too see which height classes you should be targeting in your startup and rookie drafts, as the numbers simply don't lie. The primarily targeted wide receiver group is the 6'1"-6'3" grouping. Once again in second place is the 5'10'-6'0" wide receivers, were again 7.3% behind the leaders over the three year sample size. As I have previously proclaimed success by the big powerful wide receivers may be coming to an end as there are very few successful big men left in the league that aren't in the twilight of their career. Over the past three years the 6'4"-6'6" receivers only made up on average 10.7% of WR receptions. Which is hardly better than the group of receivers between 5'7"-5'9", with a 8.4% representation annually in receptions. In dynasty there is simply no reason to be drafting receivers in the bottom two grouping for aforementioned reasons, they just simply aren't viable long term dynasty options. You also have to consider that several of the contributors to the shorter and taller receiver groups are either retired such as Steve Smith, & Calvin Johnson. Not only that Dez Bryant and A.J. Green are reaching the the end of their fantasy relevance due to age.