Wide Receiver Fantasy Points In Relation To Height
In my latest four part series I researched the overall success rate of wide receivers in a variety of statistical categories including, fantasy points scored, targets, receptions, and receiving yards. I used statistical data from the 2015-2017 seasons using the top fifty in each specific category and graphed my results. The first and as far as dynasty players are concerned the most important of the categories I tackled was fantasy points scored. For the sake of tracking receivers based on height I divided them into four separate classes. The first group consists of receivers 5'7"-5'9", the second grouping are wide outs 5'10'-6'0". The third division of receivers are 6'1"-6'3", and finally the big guys 6'4"-6'6" to it close.
The graph below displays the 2017 PPR fantasy point leaders among wide receivers, I have broken the graph up into different height groupings. As you can see the success rate of the wide outs between 6'1"-6'3" is leading the way representing 44.0% of the top fifty scoring WR's. Not far behind is the group of wide receivers between 5'10"-6'0" as they accounted for 36.0% of PPR scoring leader board. Well behind in third place with only a 14.0% representation in the top fifty are the largest receivers of the group ranging from 6'4"-6'6", As expected the group with the lowest percentage in top fifty PPR scoring in 2017 was the receivers between 5'7"-5'9", accounting for a meager 6.0% of the total top fifty.
2017 WR Fantasy Points Scored
2016 WR Fantasy Points Scored
In 2016 as the below graph illustrates there were a lot of similarities to the 2017 top fifty PPR leaders. The little guys (5'7"-5'9") seen a slight uptick from 6.0% in 2017 to 8.0% in 2016, still well behind the rest of the groupings. The big men ranging between 6'4"-6'6" once again accounted for 14.0% of the top fifty in PPR scoring. The receivers measuring between 5'10"-6'0" closed the gap on the leaders in 2016 as they again represented 36.0%. With wide outs between 6'1"-6'3" once again leading the way with 42.0% of the top fifty wide receivers in PPR scoring. The top two grouping ran away with the leader board with a 78.0% representation, it's becoming obvious the height range of receivers you should be targeting.
2015 WR Fantasy Points Scored
The 2015 graph which can be seen below also looks very similar to the 2016 graph and 2017 graph in regards to the same two groupings dominating the top fifty PPR wide receivers. The 6'1"-6'3" receivers accounted for a three year high 46.0% of the top fifty leading the way once again. The 2015, 5'10"-6'0" group of wide outs had slightly better numbers than the 2016 contingency having 19 in the of the top 50 in PPR scoring representing 38.0%. The larger wide outs between 6'4"-6'6" had only a 10.0% representation in 2015, and the shortest group dropped back down to their 2017 totals of a mere 6.0% of the top fifty PPR scorers.
2015-2017 WR Fantasy Points Scored
The next graph displayed below truly highlights the vast gap between the top two receiver groupings and the bottom two receiver groupings, when looked at over a three year sample size. The top two scoring fantasy receiver groupings (6'1"-6'3") and (5'10"-6'0") account for 80.7% of the top fifty PPR wide outs annually between 2015-2017. The "Big Boys" 6'4"-6'6" were responsible for 12.7% of the top fifty in PPR scoring over the past three years accounting for the majority of their fantasy points in the red zone. As was the case in my RB research the smaller players just simply aren't scoring significant fantasy points. The shortest receiver group which was 5'7"-5'9" only accounted for an average of 6.7% of the annual top fifty in PPR scoring over the course of the past three NFL seasons.
In conclusion it's not hard too see which height classes you should be targeting in your startup and rookie drafts, as the numbers simply don't lie. The primary fantasy points scoring wide receiver group accounting for 44.0% of the annual top fifty in PPR scoring is the 6'1"-6'3" gang. With several years of data to support this I honstly don't foresee it changing either. A close second in PPR scoring annually is the 5'10'-6'0" wide receivers, they account for 36.7% of the annual top fifty which is a 7.3% difference, when compared to the top grouping. It appears that the day of the big powerful wide receiver may be coming to an end as there are very few successful big men left in the league that aren't in the twilight of their career. Over the past three years the 6'4"-6'6" receivers only made up on average 12.7% of PPR scoring leaders. Which is still considerably better than the group of receivers between 5'7"-5'9", they were essentially non existent in the top fifty over the past few seasons. With a 6.7% representation annually in the PPR top fifty, in other words despite how fast their "40" time is just stay away from the little guys.